Brazil is a vast country with great potential but with various factors holding it back. It’s most successful period economically was 1930-1970 during which it grew at an average of 7% pa based on the Import Substitution model. During the 1970's growth was maintained by borrowing internationally and this led in 1982 to the Latin American debt crisis and the inability to service debts.

The 1980's were the lost decade in Brazil and the rest of Latin America as the debt burden led to hyperinflation and fiscal repression. It was only in the 1990's that the debt burden ceased to be a critical issue, following Brady Plan relief and other adjustments, and hyperinflation was finally brought under control with a new currency, the Real, in 1994.

Since then the record has been mixed. A new Constitution was approved in 1988 which included many progressive provisions involving the extension of economic concepts of citizenship to the whole population and it is fair to say that there has been a lot of progress socially over the past three decades.

However Brazil has failed to reorientate it’s insertion in the international economy on a longterm sustainable basis. There are a number of factors hindering this such as excessive costs and measures to address these issues are subject to political process. At the current time the most urgent issue in Brazil is pensions reform. The Brazilian State employee pension system is excessively generous and is causing large and increasing fiscal deficits.  

In October 2019 a set of pensions reforms were approved but it remains to be seen how successful these will be in restraining costs and reducing the deficit. The new Finance Minister, Paulo Guedes, under President Bolsonaro is a disciple of the Chilean school of market reforms and financial orthodoxy and he is quite clear on the need for reforms.


Contents

Introduction

The Modern Period

The Current Era

The Modern State

Economics from the Ground Up

Political Systems

Trade Theory

The EU as a Model of Integration

Industrialisation

Synopsis

Data 

            World GDP                                          2018

            World GDP PPP                                  2018

            GDP per capita ppp                          2018

            Exports  & Imports                           2018

            Container Traffic                 2010 & 2018

            Oil Production                                    2018

            Migrant Remittances                       2018

            Tourism Statistics                             2017

            Tourism Americas                             2017              

Latin America         

Background

The US and Latin America

Economy

The EU and Latin America

Mercosur

World Exports                                     2000-2018

 Brazil                             

            Introduction

            Political System

            Brazil in the World Economy

            Agriculture & Commodities

            Embrapa

            Manufacturing

            Ethanol & Oil

            Brazil & China

            Brazil & Latin America

            Brazil & the US

            Brazil & the EU

            Labour Market

            Social Structure

            Housing

            State Budget

            Health System

            Medium Term

            Current Issues

            Tax, Welfare & Pensions

            The Cost of Brazil

            Reforms Proposed by CNI

            Summary              

            Charts & Chart Commentary   

Sources

89 pages